The emergence of cities in specific locations depends on both geographical features (such as elevation and proximity to rivers) and institutional factors (such as centrality within an administrative region). In this paper, we analyse the importance of these factors at different levels of the urban hierarchy. To do so, we exploit a unique data set on the locations of cities of different status in imperial China from 221 BCE to 1911 CE, a geographically diverse empire with a long history of centralised rule. Developing a stylised theoretical model, we combine econometrics with machine learning techniques. Our results suggest that the higher a city is in the urban hierarchy, the less important are local geographical features compared to institutional factors. At the lower end of the scale, market towns without government responsibilities are most strongly shaped by geographical characteristics. We also find evidence that many cities of political importance in imperial times still enjoy a special status nowadays, underlining the modern relevance of these historical factors.
Düben, Christian and Krause, Melanie. Economic Journal, 133 (651), 1067–1105, 2023.
